Monte Carlo Simulations in Excel (eBook and sample Excel file)

Want to move beyond point estimates and add real risk analysis to your spreadsheets? This practical guide shows you exactly how to run a Monte Carlo simulation in Excel—from concept to implementation—using formulas you already know.

You’ll learn how to use different distributions, how to parameterize each for finance use cases, and how to store and analyze simulation outputs. The included Excel workbook mirrors the tutorial so you can follow along and adapt it to your own needs.

What you’ll learn

• The core logic of Monte Carlo simulation and random number generation in Excel
• How to map uncertain inputs to the right probability distribution
• Building a reusable simulation engine (iterations, sampling, recording outputs)
• Summarizing results

What’s inside

• Ebook (PDF): clear, step-by-step tutorial with zero fluff
• Excel Example Workbook (.xlsx):
  • Model simulation sheet (just copy-paste the macro / no add-ins)

Perfect for

• Financial analysts, FP&A, controllers, founders, and students
• Anyone who needs a risk-aware alternative to single-cell scenarios in Excel

Use cases

• Capital budgeting & NPV distributions
• Revenue/COGS forecasting with uncertainty
• Pricing & margin risk
• Inventory / lead time variability
• Portfolio return ranges & drawdown risk
• Any situation where you have an Excel model and you want to add a Monte Carlo Simulation to it!

How it works

1. Download the PDF and Excel file.
2. Read the short tutorial and walk through the workbook to understand the application in practice.
3. Layer the knowledge on top of your models to run simulations and present data-driven risk insights.

Requirements

Excel 2016 or later (Microsoft 365 recommended). Works on Windows (no macros on macOS). No add-ins required.